Banks’ quarterly profits set to drop 14% despite deposit surge to
Rs35tr
Pakistan’s major banks are expected to report a 14% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)
drop in profits for the second quarter of 2025 (2QCY25), despite a significant
rise in total banking deposits to Rs35 trillion. The dip follows a 100 basis
point (bps) policy rate cut by the State Bank in May and declining yields that
continue to pressure margins.
According to Insight Securities, earnings for key banks under its coverage –
including HBL, UBL, MCB, Meezan Bank, and Bank Alfalah – are forecast to fall
1% year-on-year (YoY) and 14% QoQ. The decline is attributed primarily to
shrinking net interest margins (NIMs) and reduced capital gains.
Non-markup income is also projected to decrease due to the normalisation of
gains that were previously elevated. However, some support to earnings may come
from rising volumes and a greater focus on mobilising low-cost deposits.
Healthy dividend payouts are expected to persist, thanks to solid capital
buffers and stable profitability.
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Estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2QCY25 stand at:
·
HBL: Rs9.5
·
UBL: Rs11.3
·
MCB Bank: Rs9.9
·
Meezan Bank: Rs11.4
·
Bank Alfalah: Rs4.9
Dividend per share (DPS) projections are:
·
HBL: Rs4.5
·
UBL: Rs7
·
MCB Bank: Rs9
·
Meezan Bank: Rs7
·
Bank Alfalah: Rs2.5
UBL is likely to outperform peers due to robust earnings and above-average
deposit growth.
Sector Overview
Banking deposits rose 12.5% YoY and 10.7% QoQ, reaching Rs35 trillion. The
latest data shows a sharp 7% increase week-on-week. However, total advances
dropped 4.1% QoQ to Rs12.9 trillion, pulling the advances-to-deposit ratio
(ADR) down by about 570 bps. In contrast, investments jumped 12.8% QoQ to
Rs36.5 trillion, reinforcing the trend of banks favouring government
securities. Borrowings remained steady at Rs14.8 trillion.
Provisioning expenses are expected to rise this quarter, reversing the
previous trend of reversals as banks had reduced advances to meet year-end ADR
targets. Despite this, the sector’s financial health remains robust, with
steady dividends anticipated.
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Alternate Outlook: Topline’s View
Topline Securities offers a slightly more optimistic forecast, projecting 7%
YoY earnings growth for banks under its coverage – Bank Alfalah, Bank AL Habib,
HBL, MCB, Meezan, and UBL – driven by a 12% YoY rise in net interest income
(NII) to Rs303 billion and a 14% YoY gain in non-interest income to Rs84
billion.
Expenses are expected to grow 8% YoY to Rs161 billion, consistent with
inflation and branch expansion. Provisions are forecast to increase to Rs9.1
billion from Rs5.9 billion in 2QCY24. UBL is projected to lead with 148% YoY
earnings growth, followed by HBL at 4%. Still, sector-wide profits may decline
5% QoQ due to weaker NII and elevated provisioning.
For the first half of 2025, cumulative earnings are estimated at Rs210
billion, up 10% YoY. Dividend payouts remain strong, with UBL’s DPS forecast to
rise to Rs8 from Rs5.5 in the previous quarter. Topline maintains a
“market-weight” stance, with HBL and Bank Alfalah flagged as top picks.
Investor Confidence Rebounds
Pakistan’s banking sector has staged a strong rebound in its price-to-book
(P/B) ratio, rising to 1.24x by June 2025 – surpassing the historical average
of 1.0x for the first time in years, per Optimus Capital Management. The sharp
turnaround reflects renewed investor confidence following years of suppressed
valuations due to inflation, regulatory pressures, and macroeconomic
uncertainty.
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The recovery is underpinned by improving profitability, stabilising macro indicators, and a more favourable interest rate environment.
Source: Express Tribune